A Local Election

Tuesday, November 5: The general election in our community (that is, the town of 20,000 where I live, which is not the same as the community in which I work) has only one matter on the ballot: the election of a mayor and three members of the city council.

Normally, such elections are of marginal interest, with low turnout. It may be different this time, thanks in part to the presence of Americans for Prosperity. If you are unfamiliar with them, you might take a moment to peruse the applicable Wikipedia article.

AFP is widely known for its leading role in the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives in the 2010 election, and for its attacks on President Obama during the 2008 and 2012 elections. It also played an active role in the anti-union “budget reforms” of 2011 in Wisconsin.

What are they doing in my community? My theory is that we are something of a pilot project for them. Thanks to the Supreme Court “Citizens United” ruling, they have so much money from conservative billionaires that they can now expand beyond national and state politics into the local arena.

Here is my analysis of their activity in this election:

- Eighteen months to two years in advance, identify a potential “hot button” local issue that falls within their purview. I believe that their interest in our specific issue is not genuine, but it gave them a starting place.

- Provide support for low-level “educational” activities on the issue. We started seeing yard signs, occasional flyers, and letters to the editor on the subject.

- Identify local people who take an interest in the issue, and groom selected persons as potential candidates. According to reports, AFP recruited their slate of local candidates in January or February of this year. None of them have any previous experience in elected office: this is a plus, for they have no past record to defend.

- Ideally, look for an election where a takeover can be made in one sweep. In our case, the long-time mayor is retiring, and three out of five seats on the council are up for election.

- Avoid direct financial support of any candidate, as it could be counterproductive. The presence of AFP has rightly become an issue in the campaign, and all of their candidates deny any direct support from AFP, though they admit to advice and logistical support. However, one other candidate stated that she was offered $20,000 by AFP to run, and she refused the money, sensing that there were "strings attached." She has been one of those attacking the AFP candidates for the "out-of-state support" that is behind them.

- Instead, funnel money into such activities as telephone “push” polls, advertising and direct mailings that avoid naming any specific candidates that happen to agree with the views expressed. AFP representatives from the state chapter say that as the election draws near, there will be door-to-door solicitation and "other educational efforts not tied to any candidate."

- Turn it into a one-issue election. Hammer on the selected issue at every opportunity; defuse any discussion of other potential issues. This has been the clear pattern in the three candidates' forums. By this time, thanks to almost two years of preparation, the selected issue is at least vaguely in the back of most voters' minds, even those who pay little attention to local politics (which is nearly all of them). In the final weeks, the goal is to bring the issue to the forefront of every voter's mind.

- Use sufficient funds so as to overwhelm what any local candidate could do. I have read estimates that past council candidates have spent sums in the area of $4,000 or $5,000. In this case, if the AFP money is counted, the amount per seat is more on the order of $20,000 and up. Be it noted that these estimates have been made by liberal organizations hostile to AFP's mission, so take them with a grain of salt.

So far, we have not seen the vicious personal attacks for which AFP became well-known in the Obama campaigns and various congressional campaigns. Such attacks would be more likely to backfire in a small-town election. But the direct mailings we have received are clearly from the same hands, down to the layout and graphic design. They tend to sensationalist one-liners that are at best misleading and sometimes entirely false.

I encourage you to watch for this pattern in your community. If you have local offices up for election on November 5, pay attention to them. Educate yourself about the candidates – it is much easier to do in this day through the Internet than it was in the old days.